64_PAU4_09

Filename
64_PAU4_09.pdf

Link to file

64_PAU4_09.pdf (267.7 kb)

Abstract
A Bayesian length-based stock assessment model was applied to PAU 4 to estimate stock status and yield. A reference period from 1991–93 was chosen by inspecting the biomass and exploitation rate trajectories from the MPD. This was a period after which exploitation rates increased and then leveled off, and after which biomass declined somewhat and then stabilised. It is not intended as a target.

Assessment results suggest that current recruited biomass is 1450 t (5% to 95% range 770 to 2330 t), and that the current exploitation rate is 19% (12% to 33%). Current recruitment biomass is estimated to be just above BAV, but with high uncertainty (83% to 125%). Current spawning biomass appears higher than SAV, (130%), but this conclusion may be sensitive to maturity ogives.

Projections suggest stable recruited biomass, with a median of 20% increase (1.5% to 38%) and a more uncertain spawning biomass (median 4% decrease, 90% range of 18% decrease to 16% increase). The 2007 recruited biomass could be above BAV (median 26% increase), but is uncertain (12% decrease to 40% increase). The 2007 spawning biomass is similar.

These results suggest that the current catch level is sustainable, but with considerable uncertainty. Major uncertainties not reflected in the model’s uncertainty estimates are described above and require this assessment to be treated with great caution.

Document date
Sunday, 31 May 2009

Document type
V 1.3

File format
Adobe PDF

File size
267.7 kb

Reference number
2009

Sort order

Uploaded from
M:\SCIPOL\Working Groups 2009\Plenary 2009\FINAL\MFish 2009 May Plenary\May 2009 - PDF\64_PAU4_09.pdf

Uploaded date
Thursday, 11 June 2009

Search tags

Species: PAU;
Stock: PAU4;

If you are having problems opening this file, you may not have the software on your computer needed to view it. Click the link below to download and install a suitable program.